Republican Impeachment Strategy

The decision the Republicans have to make on Friday (January 31) in the impeachment trial is whether to allow witnesses and whether to end the trial with an immediate vote on removal. They should end the trial.

The main problem is that the impeachment trial is tying up the Senators in Washington. In particular, it's keeping Senator Bernie Sanders and Senator Elizabeth Warren from campaigning in Iowa. This helps Joe Biden.

According to all the polls, Biden does better than any other Democrat in a general election matchup against Donald Trump. In addition, Biden probably has longer coattails. He has a higher favorability rating. That means that the other Democrats are getting a lesser of two evils vote: a lot of voters don't like them, but would vote for them because they like Trump even less. Those voters would be likely to split their ticket. Biden would be more likely to persuade them to vote for all the Democrats.

So if the Democrats nominate anyone other than Biden, it would help the Republicans both directly (by helping Trump) and indirectly (by promoting ticket splitting).

That means the Republicans need to end the trial so that Sanders and Warren can get back to campaigning and maybe stop Biden.

Posted 2020/January/29